Every piece is anchored to a named game-theory concept.
Read the moves over decades, not news cycles.
Diagnose what is. Resist the urge to prescribe what ought.
ESSAYS
Vol. 1Below the Line
Most of humanity now lives in countries no longer having enough children to replace themselves. A data-driven look at why birth rates fell below the line — and what's driving it.
The Canary Stops Singing
For the first time in the modern era, record debt and rising long-term yields are arriving together. The bond market is sending a costly signal. Washington, so far, isn't listening.
Conversations at the crux.
Long-form interviews and short solo essays. Episodes drop with each new piece.
Watch on YouTube
The Crux is a calm, analytical read of important matters — markets, geopolitics, power, the ordinary choices that shape a life — with game theory as the framing. Revealed preferences, dominant strategies, credible commitments, the equilibria people actually end up in versus the ones they say they want.